On Being Strategically Wrong

I just finished a book by Robert Kurzban called Why Everyone (Else) Is a Hypocrite: Evolution and the Modular Mind. Kurzban is a evolutionary psychologist.

I have read many behavioural economics books recently, such as Thinking, Fast and Slow, Wait: The Art and Science of Delay, and How We Decide. Also in the last couple of years, I have read books like Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions , and its critic's book The Logic of Life: The Rational Economics of an Irrational World.

All of these books describe the same famous psychological experiments which try to prove that humans are not rational beings always weighing the costs and benefits of their actions and then taking actions that are in their own self-interest as described by economic theory. However, they often draw different conclusions. It can be quite confusing.

Kurzban's book seems to be the exception. It makes the other books look silly. His concept of the modular mind explains how our brains have developed over millions of years of evolution. Our minds contain many parts or “modules” each with different functions. Sometimes these modules don't communicate very well to each other.

So saying “I think” or “Someone is acting in their self-interest” begs the question who is "I" and what is a "self".

As Kurzban describes most of us have the impression that somewhere inside our head is a central control that is the brains controlling our thoughts. Also, we have the impression that the part of the brain that controls speech actually speaks for all of our modules.

However, split brain patient experiments prove that parts of the right side of the brain can become disconnected from the speaking part of our brain on the left side.

Similar experiments with normal people show that there are many parts of the brain that are not connected to our speaking part. Kurzban suggests that this is why we may have strong opinions about subjects like legalizing abortion. recreational drugs or prostitution without being able to explain the logic behind our opinions.

I highly recommend Kurzban's book.

However, my own field of expertise is optimism bias in project management. Late in my career in the Department of National Defence after I had completed my PhD dissertation entitled Cost Estimation and Performance Measurement in Canadian Defence, I remarked to the Director of Costing Services that Project Managers' estimates of costs should not be trusted. They are unrealistically optimistic about their projects and will systematically underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits. The Director brushed my comments aside and quickly replied, “Project managers have to be optimistic”.

Kurzban has an interesting insight into this optimism bias from an evolutionary point of view. Being unrealistically optimistic should have put people at an evolutionary disadvantage over time. If some people were unrealistic about their chances of survival in risky situations and acted irrationally, evolution would suggest that their genes would be killed off.

Kurzban hypothesizes that there might be an evolutionary advantage from optimism or being “strategically wrong” in social settings. Namely, it may be helpful in persuading others to do your wishes if you truly belief your plans will be successful.

Although part of your brain may know the facts about the likely success of your plans, the part of your brain that wants to persuade people is able to take control of your behaviour. In that way, you can be convincing in your overly optimistic statements about your project and not actually be lying in the sense of saying something that you don't actually believe.

Therefore, project managers are not really lying about the future costs of their projects. The part of their brain that controls speech may truly believe what they are saying. No amount of factual information about the costs of similar projects will be able to convince them that they are being unrealistic. In fact, it is likely that part of their brain already knows the facts. Unfortunately, that part of their brain is not able to take control of their behaviour.